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1. US-Presidential Election 2008

Barack Obama, winning more than 2206 delegates (including 441 superdelegates) has succeeded to clinch the Democratic Presidential nomination, while Clinton signaled that she may be willing to become Obama’s Vice Presidential nominee if it helps Democratic Party to win the White House. Clinton, the most successful female Presidential candidate in US history, ended her courageous campaign with an emotional speech, asking her voters to get behind Obama, endorsing his nomination and giving her full support to him. Obtaining a historic nomination becoming the first Afro American to be a major party’s Presidential candidate, Obama must put a very good event to announce the selection of his running mate, but he may not be willing any more to consider to offer Clinton a spot on the ticket. However Obama and Clinton agreed on a joint public rally in an effort to unify Democratic party, cooperate in harmony and help retire her pending $20 Million campaign debt through new contributions from Obama’s supporters. Having a huge fund raising success, Obama rejected Public Financing of his general-election campaign, becoming the first Presidential contender of a major party to do so. Former Vice President Al Gore, who lost the Presidential Election 2000 against Bush, many think the 2000 election was stolen from Al Gore, endorsed vigorously a Obama and will be eventually on the team if Obama wins the White House. Obama, who must deliver an exceptional speech at the Democratic Convention in Denver, wants full voting rights for Florida and Michigan, having the rules committee agreed to let their delegates have only half a vote each as the two important states held their primaries in violation to Democratic Party rules, and it seems to be most likely the credentials committee will grant his request. With less than 90 days until Presidential Election on November 4, Democrats must turn their full attention to the General Election, aiming to reverse eight years of failed Bush/McCain policies that have weakened the United States. John McCain, 73, who secured his nomination, which will not become official until the Republican National Convention in September, is said to be a problem-solver who could bring spending under control, avoiding the steady collapse of the government’s financial house. Federal budget has increased to $3,1 Trillion from $1,8 Trillion; the national debt is now $9 Trillion, more than the combined GDP of China, Japan and Canada, and adding Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security commitments, as a nation there is a $50 Trillion hole, an invisible mortgage of $450.000 for every American family. The federal spending, surging the federal budget deficit to a record amount of almost $482 Billion for the fiscal year ending September 30 - after three consecutive years of budget surpluses, the war on terror, federal judgeships and energy independence are all significant issues. General public concern, discontent and widespread dissatisfaction, only 29% of Americans approve the President, only 14% approve the Congress and just 6% view the economy positively, will conduce voters to choose the candidate they trust more to secure America’s place in the world, a candidate with strong leadership qualities and capable to introduce and fight for a change! Republicans try to portray Democratic nominee Obama as weak in the fight against terrorism and Obama is ready and willing to fight Republicans over foreign policy and national security issues. If Obama can convince American voters he can protect them, then he cannot lose! The easiest way for McCain to lose Presidential election in November is to allow Democrats to tie him to Bush, considered an electoral liability for the Republican Party. With six consecutive months of job declines, rising rates of home foreclosures and high energy and food prices the economy gets more at the forefront of the Presidential race and the debate is open. While McCain proposes tax cuts to stimulate the economy, giving most of the benefits to the wealthy and corporations, Obama is talking about a redistribution of the tax burden to reduce economic inequality, a real plan focusing on fairness and growth. Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama joined a congressional delegation visiting Afghanistan, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Israel, Germany, France and Britain to prove his foreign policy experience, discussing in Baghdad the future strategy and a time horizon for a withdrawal of US combat forces from Iraq, suggested to take place by the end of 2010, or earlier. The objective of his trip was to listen to leaders he has been visiting to get a sense of what their interests and concerns are, giving a clear message that if elected to the White House, America will intend to continue to show leadership but with a style less unilateral and building partnerships around the world, defending a strong relationship between the US and Europe and engaging more actively with Asia, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa. What Obama wants to communicate on both sides of the Atlantic, the US and Europe, is the enormous potential of us restoring a sense of coming together! CNN and Washington Post continue to put Obama ahead by 46%/42% respectivamente 46,5%/43,9%, Rasmussen’s tracking poll makes it much closer with 44% to 43% and Gallup’s latest tracking poll showed a 44% Obama/44% McCain pull even! McCain’s campaign is moving on to direct negative attacks on Obama’s character and Democrats are worried Obama is not doing enough to hit back at McCain, convincing also voters of the important more traditional blue-collar swing states, where Clinton won by huge margins in the primary contest, signalling that he understands their concern and feels their pain talking in a language people understand! The Democratic party’s overall electoral advantage has still to translate into a comfortable lead by Obama in the Presidential Election race!

Are the US ready for an Afro-American President Obama, a change we can believe in? It’s only Obama who really brings along a change!

http://usaelectionpolls.com/rss/current-democrat-polls.js

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2. Economic Outlook - Excesses & Consequences

Figures released show that US economic growth fell sharply in the last three months of 2007, as the credit crunch took effect, slowdown triggered by a slump in building activity by 16,9%, the biggest fall in 25 years, as housing prices collapsed. President Bush signed a two year bipartisan $168 Billion US economic stimulus plan with tax rebates for consumers and tax relief for business to calm financial markets and help desesperate homeowners. The Federal Reserve put into force liquidity measures with repeated interest rate cuts and lowered interest rates for banks for overnight loans from 2,25% to 2% (Fed Funds rate) and the discount rate from 2,50% to 2,25% (Federal Discount rate), taking into account the poor economic growth of 0,9% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, declines in consumer spending, in housing prices and business investment, along with spreading unemployment reaching 5,5% in June, jumping to 5,7% in July and expecting to peak 6,4% in 2009. The IMF warned financial markets are fragile and there is still no end in sight to credit crisis, estimating overall losses caused by the subprime mortgage crisis at about $945 Billion, including loans and securities related to commercial real estate, the consumer credit market and corporations potential losses; total losses of the US residential mortgage market could reach $565 Billion, compared to almost $500 Billion in writedowns and credit losses already booked by financial firms. Dropping consumer confidence to the lowest in 28 years and falling again sharply in June, as anxious shoppers grapple with surging food and fuel costs and sales of new cars and trucks plunged to their lowest level in more than a decade, posting General Motors/GM a stunning $15,5 Billion second quarter loss, lowering Standard & Poor’s GM’s credit rating, there is an increasing awareness that the US economy is exposed to economic contraction, entering into a soft recession, but might still grow up to 1,3%  this year, as GDP rose at a seasonally adjusted healthy 1,9% in the second quarter, far above expectations a few months ago - the IMF sees a 0,5% US growth for 2008, reviving only gradually to hit 2% in 2009, while the IMF lowered estimate for world growth from 4,1% to 3,7%. The US one year inflation increased to 5,02% in June (including food and enegry) and it will be a task of the Federal Reserve to monitor inflation carefully, as economic weakness and high inflation develop stagflation symptoms. Appearing to put slightly less emphasis on concern about rising inflation and inflation expectations and indicating continued worries about weaker economic growth, the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged, keeping its federal funds rate at 2% and the commercial bank’s prime lending rate at 5%, still withstanding a tightening of US monetary policy with increasing interest rates. The economic growth forecast 2008 for the 27-nation European Union is being revised downwards below 2% and for the 15-nation Eurozone estimated to reach only 1,7%/IMF forecast 1,3%, as there are clear indications that factory activity is contracting, while inflation rate outlook this year for EU is 3,6% and for the Eurozone 3,2%, but accelerated already to 4,3% in June in the EU and hit 4,1% in the Eurozone at the end of July. The European Central Bank/ECB raised its main interest rate from 4% to 4,25% alarmed about inflation trends combined with lower growth increasing stagflation fears in the Eurozone, and balancing between risks of recession and a runaway inflation leaves rate unchanged. OECD has cut combined gross domestic growth forecast for its 30 members to 1,8% for 2008 and 1,7% for 2009. According to the IMF emerging economies will not be immune from a general slowdown of economic growth among wealthier countries and should make the fight against inflation their top priority! Brazil and Russia, commodity producers and beneficiaries of higher commodity prices, will have with 4,8% and 7,8% respectively lower growth rates in 2008, while the somewhat frenetic growth in China and India, both commodity consumers, will continue with estimated 9,9% and 8,5% respectively in 2008. As result of a weaker short term Dollar, the Dollar quoted commodities have become more attractive, obtaining major attention from investors, not only from Asia and the Gulf nations, which sell Dollar as it comes down, while the volatility and sensibility of stocks and bonds goes on. Especially oil (energy) and gold (metals) and other commodities, such as agricultural commodities, are used as hedge against inflation and the weakening Dollar, as rising commodity prices will offset dollar declines. However higher energy and agricultural commodity prices originate further inflation pressure in both rich and poor countries, posting an additional threat to global economic and political stability. To ease effects of global credit crunch, the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the central banks of Canada, UK and Switzerland agreed to inject in a coordinated action cash and securities into the money markets, helping financial institutions, with growing losses due to record defaults on US home loans, to solve liquidity shortages and to extend out more credit, in an effort to increase demand and stop general economic decline. And the Federal Reserve acted again to further reduce persistent liquidity pressures, increasing size of its cash auctions and allowing credit card debt, student loans and car loans as collateral for Fed loans, also jointly with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank increased currency swaps in nearly 50% to provide more Dollars to their banks, which are also holders of Dollar loans in the mortgage sector needing Dollars to meet their obligations; due to continued fragile circumstances in financial markets the Fed extended emergency lendings for banks, introduced in March, until the end of January of next year and in a coordinated action the ECB and SNB are also extending their operations to include auctions of 84-days funds. Since the subprime mortgage crisis Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF), flush with cash thanks to high oil prices and surging Asian exports, injected almost $69 Billion on recapitalizing the world’s biggest investment banks (Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, UBS, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Standard Chartered, HSBC), ‘the rescue of capitalism’ finest’. In an emergency deal, authorized by the Treasury Department and the Fed, JPMorgan Chase bought the troubled fifth largest US investment bank Bear Stearns reaching worth of revised deal about $1,2 Billion. JP Morgan Chase first-quarter earnings dropped 50%, Merrill Lynch reported worse than expected earnings for the first-quarter and Citibank lost $5,1 Billion in the same period, Wells Fargo’s profit fell 11% and Bank of America’s earnings 77% to $1,21 Billion, Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers confirmed both smaller than expected first-quarter profit declines of 53% and 57%. However Lehman Brothers announced a record net loss of $2,87 Billion for the second quarter ending May 31 and plans to sell $6 Billion in stock to improve capital base,  existing also speculations the recent troubles may force a sale of the firm, while Goldman Sachs earnings for the same period dropped ‘only’ 11%  to $2,09 Billion amid credit losses, withstanding the turmoil in the credit market better than other banks, as Morgan Stanley reported also a second quarter net income of $1,026 Billion, but down from $2,363 Billion/57% a year ago. The Federal Reserve has let it be known that it will lend Lehman Brothers (and any other investment bank it deems worthy) enough money to avoid collapsing like Bear Stearns, also into next year as long as financial market turmoil persists and the S.E.C. will take emergency action to stop abusive short-selling of stock in financial institutions in difficulties. Citigroup posted a $2,5 Billion second quarter loss, reporting mortgage and credit related costs of $11,7 Billion, having lost more than $17 Billion in the last three quarters and taken about $55 Billion in writedowns and increased credit costs since mid-2007. Merrill Lynch reported for the same period a $4,65 Billion loss, taking $9,4 Billion in additional writedowns of troubled assets, posting losses of about $19 Billion for the past four quarters, having taken a total of $46,1 Billion in writedowns since the beginning of the crisis, and is planning the sale of its 20% Bloomberg stake worth about $4,43 Billion and its controlling interest in Financial Data Services with an enterprise value of about $3,5 Billion to raise capital, not selling for now a portion of its 49% Black Rock stake worth some $10 Billion, even as further write downs of $5,7 Billion are expected for the third quarter; still Merrill Lynch plans to raise $8,5 Billion in new capital from shareholders, including $3,4 Billion from Sovereign Wealth Funds Singapore’s Temasek Holdings, with an 8,85% stake as of June 30 its largest shareholder and the Kuwait Investment Authority/KIA; Wells Fargo, the biggest bank of the west Coast, said second quarter profit dropped 23% to $1,75 Billion, a smaller decline than expected, while J.P.Morgan Chase posted a 54% plunge to $2 Billion for its same period net income, down from $4,23 Billion a year earlier, saying it will take total charges and other related expenses of about $10,5 Billion to clean up the balance sheet of Bear Stearns, the troubled investment bank bought earlier this year, but resisting better a tough market and credit environment. Bank of America, which acquired the troubled mortgage giant Countrywide earlier this year, reported a second quarter net income of $3,41 Billion, down 41% a year ago, tripling credit loss provisions to $5,83 Billion from $1,81 Billion last year, as further charge-offs are expected for several more quarters. Standard & Poor’s downgraded top investment banks Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley and revised outlooks to ‘negative’ on Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup, having already lowered the outlook of Goldman Sachs from ’stable’ also to ‘negative’. Important rating agencies, like Standard & Poor’s, blamed for awarding high ratings to subprime mortgage securities agree to reform some of their core business practices according to regulatory suggestions from the Securities and Exchange Commissio/SEC. Confidence in banking sector sank and banks continue to feel credit stress, as capital not liquidity is their priority, prolonging and deepening the magnitude of credit related losses in the financial sector its negative impact on the stock market and on the economy, as banking stocks are suffering their worst losses in a generation, becoming increasingly vulnerable particularly smaller, regional lenders, practicing American banks a newfound caution reducing even business loans! UBS, Europe’s biggest casualty of the US subprime crisis, which so far has written down about $38,2 Billion of investments linked to US home loans market, confirmed further writedowns of up to $7,5 Billion, reducing results for the second quarter to nearly break even. Eventually the home market, which shows continued weakness,  might reach bottom line. However US housing prices continue to fall, dropping 16% from a year earlier in 20 major metropolitan areas, and sales are still slowing, leaving them 15,5% below where they were a year ago, and the number of foreclosed homes returning to the market for sale are boosting uncomfortably inventories. The Senate passed a bipartisan package of tax breaks for homeowners and businesses hurt by the faltering economy - a step in the right direction,  which offered little aid to nearly 8000 families suffering foreclosure each day. The Federal Mortgage Plan to refinance homeowners who had fallen behind their mortgage payments, with stable, government-insured loans, has failed to really ease foreclosure crisis. A new broader housing aid bill began moving through Congress, including a program, aimed at rescuing more than 400.000 qualified homeowners in danger of foreclosure and seeking to remain in their primary home, eligible if troubled loan or loans were originated on or before January 1, 2008, allowing the government to guarantee up to $300 Billion in mortgages refinanced into more affordable 30-year fixed-rate loans with lower monthly payments at more affordable rates through the Federal Housing Administration, if lenders agree to forgive a portion of the debt and write new loan/s worth no more than 90% of the home’s current, diminished value - depending largely on bankers’ willingness to take a partial loss on loan/s, an overhaul of the Federal Housing Administration, stronger regulations of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, giving them a permanent authority to increase home loans from $417.000 to $625.000, $15 Billion in housing-related tax incentives, including a refundable tax credit of up to $7.500 or 10% of the purchase price for first home owners on purchase of unoccupied housing to slow the fall of plunging home prices, an amount of $150 Million to expand counseling for borrowers to prevent foreclosure, establishing stricter disclosure rules and payment requirements for lenders, a Housing Trust Fund of $5 Billion to cover expenses related to the foreclosure rescue plan for three years to be used to create affordable rental housing, financial councelling and mortgage restructuring, and a $3,9 Billion emergency aid to stabilize hard-hit communities by purchasing vacant and foreclosed properties. The long-sought housing relief legislation, raising the national debt ceiling to $10,6 Trillion to accomodate rescue plan for the mortgage companies, existing already federal debt of $9,5 Trillion, made its final passage overwhelmingly through the Senate and was signed into law by President Bush early Wednesday. To stabilize troubled housing companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with a combined capital structure of about $83 Billion, debts of more than $1,5 Trillion, exposures of more than $5 Trillion and unprecedented losses of $11 Billion in the last nine months, expecting new quarterly losses as foreclosures continue, suffering both firms increasingly under-capitalisation, the Treasury Department took two steps, which could cost over $25 Billion for the next two years, but according to the IMF upwards of $100 Billion, making plans to increase the amount they can borrow from the Government and enabling the Government to directly invest in the firms if conditions get worse, suggesting the creation of a new regulatory agency the Federal Housing Finance Agency, authorizing the Federal Reserve separately direct lending to the two companies if necessary, - important emergency measures forming now an essential part of the new housing rescue law. Meanwhile home loan rates approached their highest levels in 5 years, reaching the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages 6,71%. G7 countries/the Group of Seven Industrialized Nations endorsed plans to overhaul the credit rating process for structured products, to strengthen risk management practices and to force banks to hold more capital to guard against risks, reducing investments into complex credit products, holding such assets in their trading portfolios and creating off-balance sheet investment vehicles, all activities at the heart of the recent turmoil; also expressed concern about sharp fluctuations in major currencies and their possible implications for economic and financial stability. The European Union is considering new rules that would force banks to set aside more capital, when they sell some of the credit products that caused the financial crisis. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York insists the U.S.financial system needs urgently stricter regulations and stronger supervision to protect against future crisis. Markets were dealing with very complex financial instruments and it’s clear to everyone that the market didn’t fully understand the risks those instruments posed! Obama economic adviser explained that investment banks that obtain Federal Reserve Bank loans during financial crisis should face much closer regulatory scrutiny! Henry Paulson, US Treasury Secretary resumed: ‘Financial markets have been reassessing risk, repricing assets and deleveraging. It took time to build up recent excesses and it will take time to work through the consequences’. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, which sets global standards for regulation, has underlined determination for closer risk controls on banks. However the regulatory framework Basel II is still a poorly addressed solution due to contradictions and inconsistences in its application around the world. The Federal Reserve and other US banking regulators, worried about financial markets, are also working on stricter rules for credit card issuers, prohibiting unfair practices, such as arbitrarily raising interest rates on outstanding balances. Other priority issues to deal with are the high energy prices and shortages and high prices for food, calling the World Bank for action on global food crisis. United Nations officials say the food crisis, worsened by soaring energy and food prices, could cost up to $30 Billion, emerging the impact of biofuels on food prices as a critical issue to government policies diverting food crops to energy use, and putting some nations in the difficult position to guarantee food for the poor and maintain economic growth.

Can the stagnant US economy recover shortly and calm fears about a longer, wider and deeper worldwide economic slowdown?

Are markets self-correcting or should authorities impose stricter regulations on financial institutions to avoid future finance market problems and return confidence?

Finance services and banking should set the very highest standards for ethical behaviour - Sir Evelyn de Rothschild. Do you also believe that this is something that has deteriorated in the past few years?

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Gold $873,70    8/07/08 ->tendency $1.000 per ounce -> while the Dollar continues to trend lower, the gold price is going to trend higher.

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2.a) Gold

Global gold production in 2007 reached about 2.444 t (tonnes). The world’s largest producing nation with 276 t was, for the first time, China, replacing South Africa which mined ‘only’ 272 t, in a notable steady ongoing decline in gold output, followed by the United States/255 t, Australia/251 t, Indonesia/171 t, Peru/167 t, Russia/150 t, Brazil/125 t and Canada/93 t. The largest proven and probable ore reserves are in South Africa, the United States (Nevada, Alaska, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah), Russia, Canada, Brazil, Ghana and Simbabwe; total reserves are estimated at 60.000 t. Of the 161.000 t ever mined, about 15% is thought to have been lost, and of the remaining 137.000 t central banks and supranational institutions hold around 32.000 t, while 105.000 t are in private hands in coin and bullion - around 22.000 t and in jewellery - around 83.000 t. Here are some official gold holdings - the United States/8.136,2 t, Germany/3.433,2 t, France/2.977,8 t, China 650 t, with record total reserves of up to $1,65 Trillion, is supposed to increase gold reserves to some 2.500 t, IMF/3.217 t, worth actually some $92 Billion, having the Group of Seven rich nations (G7) approved the sale of gold by the IMF, as part of a broad reform of its budget, raising resources by selling gold. The IMF confirmed that it will sell 403,3 t of Gold worth some $11 Billion, which is unlikely to happen until after the Presidential elections this year, in a way that would avoid to disrupting the market. The largest share of final demand at around 70%/$44 Billion, comes from jewellery, accounting India, the world’s largest gold jewellery market by volume for around 555 t, followed in terms of consumption demand by the United States, the global second largest gold jewellery market with 306 t, China with 302 t, the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Dubai), Turkey and Italy. Gold trade is a chief driver of economic diversification in the Gulf region, having Dubai imported 559 t in 2007 and re-exported 287 t into the vigorous Arab and Indian markets. The industrial and dental uses account for around 12% of gold demand, while investment demand is estimated at 18%, around $11,3 Billion. The sharp fall in South African gold output and the forthcoming sale of IMF gold may - at this time - trigger more buying interest, especially from anxious investors, private householders to defend their wealth, and the big sovereign buyers - the big central banks outside the G7 -, who want to build up their gold reserves. Gold has reinstated its age old position as the best hedge against inflationary times and increasing wealth in Brazil, India and China is contributing to leave demand outstripping mine supply. Gold output fell 11,6% in the year to May, compared with a year earlier, and gold mining will not going to be easier, it gets deeper and more expensive! It looks as if the general fundamental outlooks for gold continue to be quite positive!

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Crude oil $119,81   per barrel - 8/07/08     (Investment Banks price forecast $150,- up to $200 a barrel, OPEC President Khelil was quoted oil price could rise as high as $170 per barrel this summer, before pulling back, while OPEC mentiones an oil price range from $113 a barrel to as high as $186 a barrel by 2030, and GAZPROM, Russia’s gas monopoly, predicted oil price could hit $250 a barrel in 2009. But there are also a few predictions oil price could fall below $105 in 2009, as soon as geopolitical tensions in oil producing countries cease.)

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2.b) Oil

The soaring crude oil price reflects tight inventories, shortage of refinery capacity, nervousness about political and military tensions in oil producing nations, refiners paying record premiums for the high quality crude oil they use to produce diesel and petrol, a decrease in the Dollar’s value and above all, a flood of investments especially from pension and hedge funds, flowing into commodities, including oil, viewed as an attractive alternative investment to Dollars and hedge against the weaker US-currency. OPEC reiterated that there is no need to increase output; oil supply is enough and high oil prices are not due to a shortage of crude. At $120 a barrel the world’s oil bill accounts for 8% of global economic output, twice as much as it was in 2006. According to the International Energy Agency/IEA global demand in 2008 will grow about 890.000 barrels a day to 86,87 Million barrels a day with a major oil demand of nearly 5,5% from China, and slow down in 2009 increasing by 860.000 barrels a day to 87,73 Million barrels a day, reaching 89,2 Million barrels a day by 2010, coming 51,8 Million barrels a day from NON OPEC oil production and 37,4 Million barrels a day from OPEC nations, rising oil demand by 2030 to 113,3 Million barrels a day. Consumption of nations belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development/OECD, like the United States, Japan, Germany and Britain, is expected to fall by 240.000 barrels a day this year. Global oil output reached 86,64 Million barrels a day in March and 86,11 Million barrels a day in April, the shortfall beeing taken out of the big inventories, about 3,5 Billion barrels in the OECD countries, which does not include China. OPEC will spend up to $160 Billion over the next four years to increase oil production capacity and is somehow worried that future oil demand might not be strong enough to justify huge investments to rise further output, increasing production cost, insisting that availability is not an issue but the real issue is deliverabilty of the required oil. The organization is considering that the current rise in oil prices is in nobody’s interest and that we have to follow the evaluation of the Dollar, as the crude oil price is tied to this currency, because 1% fall in the Dollar means four Dollars more in the price of oil! Experts predict the oil market will remain tight and a nearing peak of the world oil production is going to signal at least a temporary end of cheap oil, requiring to price oil realistically to control demand.

(Million Barrels per Day)

Of the 14 countries that produced more than 2 Million barrels a day in 2007, seven were OPEC members - Saudi Arabia/8,71, Iran/3,70, United Arab Emirates/2,50, Kuwait/2,47, Venezuela/2,39, Qatar/2,12, Iraq/2,08 -. The remaining 7 NON OPEC members, including United States/8,48, were Russia/9,88, China/3,91, Mexico/3,50, Canada/3,36, Norway/2,58 and Brazil/2,29. Russia, Norway, Mexico and Kazakhstan are the world’s largest NON OPEC net oil exporters. The United States/-12,24 is the world’s largest net oil importer; China/-3,77 is also net oil importer, while Canada/+1,01 is a smaller net oil exporter. Canada has over 170 Billion barrels of recoverable bitumen from oil sands with today’s tecnology and Alberta oil sands with an estimated total bitumen reserve between 1,7 Trillion and 2,5 Trillion barrels, more than the total OPEC oil reserves of about 900 Billion barrels, are for decades not considered part of the world’s oil reserves because the oil there wasn’t economically extractable at prevailing prices but could become the most important source of new oil in the world in coming years. There are also expectations Arctic may hold as much as 90 Billion barrels or 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30% of the world’s undiscovered gas reserves. NON OPEC oil production is expected to rise; the greatest increases were expected from Russia and Brazil, however Russia, the world’s second biggest oil producer, shows actually a declining oil production, and some believe that the period of intense oil production in the oil reach western Siberia is over, fuelling concern that oil producers cannot keep up with strong Asian oil demand lead by China’s continuing economic boom and India’s rapid economic expansion, two of the developing nations subsidising heavily energy prices, particularly diesel fuel, to ease the burden on the poorest in society, as oil production in Mexico is also slowing down, facing the state owned oil company PEMEX a cronical lack of cash and of technical capacity for deepwater exploration and production. Proven oil reserves worldwide rose slightly in 2007 to 1.237,9 Billion barrels to reach, considering the actual world consumption, for about 43 years and lasting in the Middle East at current production levels up to 93,4 years. There are increased hopes in Nigeria’s offshore oil to replace disminishing worldwide reserves, while Saudi Arabia, the only OPEC member with the potential to expand oil production, put on hold any further capacity expansion plans. The world is not running out of oil! The biggest threat to the future of supplies is the lack of spare production capacity worldwide, warned Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, and Libya’s National Oil Corporation admitted that there was little more oil the OPEC could pump in case of a shortfall, confirming that there is not enough spare capacity to help. Shortfalls are caused by oil rich countries such as Nigeria, Kuwait, Venezuela, Iran and Iraq, where politics has stymied production growth. Oil rich Nigeria, where rebels are attacking oil wells and pipelines, and Iran, because of its nuclear program and concerns to stop the country from producing bomb-grade uranium, are the lingering hotspots the markets are actually focusing on, worried also about Iraqui’s oil exports through the north of the country hit by renewed crossborder raids by Turkish forces against Kurdish insurgents. Saudi Arabia suggested that the United States, where no new oil refineries have been built in 30 years, should expand refining capacity, as additional expansion of oil refining capacity is needed worldwide, and could go more aggressively for domestic exploration. Bush lifted presidential ban on offshore oil drilling to ease dependence on crude imports, what would not guarantee any additional oil for as much as seven years, and in any case there is no immediate practical effect as Congress enacted its own prohibition on offshore drilling in 1981. It seems that today’s oil prices are influenced more by opinions and predictions from brokers and investment banks, focusing on perceived risks to future oil supplies and the growth in oil demand from emerging economies, having moved away from the nearly unchanged market fundamentals, and stock exchange oil tradings exceed 17 times the real world crude demand! However the key problem remains the same: the inability of global oil supply to catch up with rising demand; global demand, led by China, criticised for its fuel subsidies, but raising now cost of gasoline and diesel by 17%/18% respectively, is expanding strongly, accounting China for almost a third of the world’s annual demand increase, and world supply not. Rising cost of fuel is producing protests all over the world and crude prices hitting new trading records dominated the G8 meeting in Japan,  multiplying fears global economy could be harmed by soaring oil prices, driving up inflation with the risk of social tensions forcing countries to look for alterntive fuel sources, and the 5 key energy-consuming nations, the United States, China, Japan, India and South Korea called again on oil producers to increase output to try to control oil prices. OPEC said no decision will be made until the next meeting in Vienna on September 9, however Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, is completing development of its giant Khursaniyah field soon, increasing its output capacity by up to 500.000 barrels a day and is willing to bring production and supplies from actually 9.450.000 barrels a day, already 300.00 barrels a day higher since last month, to a total of 9,7 Million barrels a day in July, or more if the market requires it! The kingdom, complying with a huge expansion program in its oil industry to increase its spare oil production capacity to up to 12,5 Million barrels a day by the end of 2009, said at a meeting with important producers and consumers on Sunday in Jeddah, it is capable to boost this level another 2,5 Million barrels a day to 15 Million barrels a day if needed. Saudi Arabia is concerned today’s record prices might damp economic growth and lead to a lower oil demand, improving countries their energy efficiency, developing alternative sources of energy, including nuclear power. Saud Arabia wants oil price stability in the global market, a fair oil price not hurting producers neither consumers, and is worried about harmony between buyers and sellers, asking consumer countries to take measures to control and stop speculations in the futures markets to bring oil prices down from the actual unreasonable high levels. The king called on OPEC to pledge $1 Billion to help developing nations with the effect of high energy prices, also offering an additional $500 Million in soft loans from Saudi Arabia. However the fresh oil offered by Saudi Arabia is less than expected and does not offset the recent output losses in Nigeria caused by attacks on production facilities, contributing only little to calm market concerns. Oil prices jumped above $140 a barrel as Libya said it is studying options to cut output in response to possible US legal actions against producer countries reducing oil production, arguing the market is well supplied and demand will drop due to warmer temperatures in energy hungry Europe and the United States. OPEC president Khelil favours cutting oil output, so do Algeria, Iran and Venezuela. Iraq, with the world’s third largest oil reserves, is opening its giant key producing oilfields to Britsh and US companies to restore its oil infrastructure and to raise output from the actual level of 2,5 Million barrels per day by a combined 1,5 Million barrels per day.

visit my blogs on energy (in spanish): http://petroleo1.blogspot.com/ on China (in german): http://chinaheute.blogspot.com/ and on Russia (in english) http://russia4you.blogspot.com/

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2.c) Sovereign Wealth Funds/SWF

SWF, government-backed investment vehicles, have proliferated in recent years thanks to high oil prices and surging Asian Exports, to a total worth of about $3 Trillion, but growing fast while amassing enormeous currency reserves. There is concern about investments compromising financial stability and sensitive sectors, such as energy or defense. However host countries and SWF see that their interest lies in building confidence and the behavior of Sovereign Wealth Funds has been so far without fail! Reserves in China reached $1,81 Trillion corresponding to about 1/2 of China’s GDP and in Russia $500 Billion or 1/3 of Russia’s GDP and there is pressure that China and also Russia, both keen to protect their exporters, should appreciate their exchange rates faster to reduce inflation, which would slow down accumulation of reserves. China and Russia have established important SWF, while Japan, with the world’s second largest foreign exchange reserves, which reached $1,01 Trillion, has not yet a SWF. The IMF will exercise its own judgement as to whether a country is in breach of the requirement not to undertake currency manipulation for trade advantage, creating also a code of ‘best practices’ to guide SWF, - expecting SWF from the countries that are getting the funds money to accept the same rules and avoiding over-regulations! The US launched an ‘Invest in America’ programme and wants that the Group of Eight rich countries (G8) leads by example, saying to review a transaction on other grounds than national security is unhelpful and unproductive! US GDB is about $12 Trillion, the total value of traded securities (debt and equity) denominated in Dollar is estimated to be more than $53 Trillion, and the global value of traded securities is about $165 Trillion. Total assets under management by private hedge funds, a broad category of private investments funds that seek high returns, and as consequence often take on considerable risks, posing also a certain risk to the global financial system, are estimated to be around $2 Trillion. Combined the top 50 hedge fund managers in 2007 earned $29 Billion, John Paulson of Paulson & Company earned $3,7 Billion, followed by the hedge fund managers James H.Simons and George Soros each earning almost $3 Billion. In that context $3 Trillion and more worth of SWF is quite significant but not so huge. Important sovereign wealth generator are China, Russia and Kuwait, and over the past 5 years the fastest growers have been Nigeria, Oman, Kazakhstan, Angola, Russia and Brazil. Abu Dhabi, the oil-rich Emirate of the Gulf region, has actually the largest Sovereign Wealth Fund, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority/ADIA with around $900 Billion and Abu Dhabi is today the world’s richest city! A number of Middle East investors is not interested to invest outside the region, as local real estate investments and infrastructure investments are giving higher returns than foreign investments and Middle Eastern investors have been repatriating their assets, reinvesting especially into the Gulf region’s spectacular mega projects. The Middle East is booming and Gulf states invest Billions of Dollars in tourism, culture and infratsructure. Due to high oil prices the fundamentals of Gulf economies are strong and they are set for a period of sustained economic growth in the short and medium term; there is a rise in foreign investments into regional markets, leaving volatile western markets hit by the subprime mortgage crisis, to benefit from local outperforming price/earning ratios. Singapore’s GIC, one of the largest SWF, warns that we could be facing a recession which is longer, deeper and wider than any recession that we have encountered in the last 30 years and considers its investments in UBS and Citibank as long-term investments with good returns when markets stabilise again. Important sovereign wealth funds in China and the Middle East are reducing there exposure to the Dollar increasingly concerned about the currency!

Sovereign Wealth Funds/SWF - Listing & Updates & Deals & Related Investors: http://swfmoney.blogspot.com/

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3. Globalization

Can globalization help to reduce effects of recession? Sure, however there are social and economic costs to globalization. Trade liberalisation rewards competitive industries and penalizes uncompetitive ones, and foments greater movement of people, goods, capital and ideas due to increased economic integration, which in turn is propelled by increased trade and investment. Global income is more than $31 trillion/year, but 1,2 billion people of the world’s population earn less than $1,- a day and 80% of the global population earn only 20% of this global income, existing in many countries a large gap between rich and poor. The 3 billion people living in 24 developing countries that increased their integration into the world economy enjoyed an average 5% growth rate in income per capita, longer live expectancy and better schooling. The digital and information revolution has changed the world’s learns, communicates, doing business and treats illnesses. Globalization has helped reduce poverty in a large number of developing countries, but too many nations and people have been left out. Important reasons for this exclusion are weak governance and policies in the non-integrating countries, tariffs and other barriers that poor countries and poor people face in accessing rich country markets and declining development assistance! But that does not justify a retreat to nationalism and protectionism, which leads to deaper poverty and is fundamentally hostile to the well-being of people in the developing nations! The challenge is to make globalization work for all, including the poor people of the world! Pope Benedict XVI called for globalization of social and economic justice!

Can globalization, an increasingly interconnected world, the international marketplace, with a greater transparency produce more global stability, reducing vulnerability to crisis?

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4. Global Warming

As interdependence increases worldwide economically and politically taking effect globalization, humankind is called to deal with priority issues, such as the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse gases that have already been put into atmosphere threaten the survival of many ecosystems and wildlife species. The dramatic change in West Antarctic Ice could produce a significant rise in global sea levels; Antarctic ice sheet is melting rapidly, as much as 36 cubic miles of ice a year. The continued greenhouse effect is an effect caused by greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxide and methane, that cause infrared radiation to be hindered when escaping the earth’s atmosphere. Sea level rise, warming temperatures, uncertain effect on forest and agricultural systems, and increased variability and volatility in weather patterns are expected to have a significant and disproportional impact in the developing world, where the world’s poor remain susceptible to potential damages and uncertainties inherent to a changing climate. Going oil and gas prices up, reliance on coal is rising especially in China, India and the United Sates, meaning that global emissions of carbon dioxide will increase and there is little hope of averting the worst effects on climate change! Wasting many years denying the real threat of global climate change, the Bush Administration, obliged by court order, released a report about global warming and it’s harmful impact in the United States! John McCain, presumtive Republican nominee, calls for a mandatory limit on greenhouse gas emissions in the United States and Obama, the Democratic candidate, is also strongly supporting plans for a clean energy future, increasing investments in renewable fuels, and considers climate change as one of the greatest moral challenges of our generation! The Kyoto protocol, ratified by over 166 countries, but not by the Bush Administration, entered into force in February 2005 and is due to end in 2012, and the US, mayor developing countries and big polluters like Brazil, China and India become fully engaged in signing up to a post-2012 agreement, centred on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change/UNFCCC,  which is scheduled to finish in late 2009, having G8 leaders agreed to consider and adopt the goal of achieving at least 50% reduction of global emission by 2050, but not yet assuming any short term commitments. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown listed climate change to the greatest threats to Britain’s peace, as are war, terrorism, disease and poverty. Lights were switched off across Australia last night at 8pm for Earth Hour, drawing mixed results and reviews. Earth Hour aims to raise environmental awareness - of global warming - by encouraging homes and businesses to turn off their lights for one hour. San Francisco and Phoenix and Canada’s Vancouver will switch off at 2pm today, while other cities in 35 nations are following. The poorer countries are calling on industrialized nations to guarantee financial help to adapt to the impact of climate change. Only up to $300 Million annually will be available through a U.N. adaption fund with a maximum of $1,5 Billion a year, which is much less than the $86 Billion the U.N. Development Program estimates is needed annually by 2015. The US, Japan and Britain said they will contribute to a clean technology fund, administered by the World Bank, that will dole out $5 to 10 Billion over three to five years, starting operations in July 2008. Pope Benedict XVI said the world needed to care for the environment, but not to the point where the welfare of animals and plants was given a greater priority than that of mankind, attacking climate change prophets of doom, warning that any solution to global warming must be based on firm evidence and on an agreement of sustainable development capable of ensuring the well-being of all while respecting environmental balances. According to the International Energy Agency/IEA the world needs to invest about $45 Trillion in energy in coming decades, build some 1.400 nuclear power plants and vastly expand wind power in order to halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and prevent energy shortages, within a new global energy revolution, transforming the way we produce and use energy.

It’s too late to avoid climate change entirely, however it seems to be still possible to take care of global warming to stay within certain limits?

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5. His Holiness Pope Benedict XVI Joseph Ratzinger

Faith is Hope. Holy Mary, mother of God, our Mother, teach us to belief, to hope, to love with you. I invoke God’s blessing of joy and peace. One can only be a Christian in the Church, not beside the Church! I invite you to observe how the Holy Spirit is the highest gift of God to humankind, and therefore is the supreme testimony of his love for us. I invite you to give time to prayer and to your spiritual formation. Lead others to love Jesus more and more and that you may follow him faithfully. Everything collapses if truth is missing. These are just some prayers, blessings and statements by Pope Benedict, who has developed an intense scientific activity. Many publications constitute a point of reference for many people, specially for those interested in entering deeper into the study of theology. In his usual clarity he made notable contributions to Church and to the Christian Society. He is the teacher, the thinker and the ponderer of deepest meanings. People came to see Pope Paul II and they come to hear Pope Benedict XVI. The Vatican announced that Pope Benedict will meet with Muslim religious leaders and scholars at a Catholic-Muslim forum in Rome later this year, explaining that the Church is eager to improve relations with moderate Islam. Many Muslims remain wary, saying the Pope has created the impression that he is insensitive to their faith. Followers of Islam increased in such an extraordinary way that today 19,2% of the world population is Muslim, while 17,4% is catholic, representing until now the most important religion. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia said we have lost sincerity, morals, fidelity and attachment to our religions and to humanity, deploring the desintegration of the family and the rise of atheism in the world, a frightening phenomenon that all religions must confront and vanquish, and calls for dialogue among monotheistic religions, project which the King discussed with Pope Benedict XVI during his landmark visit to the Vatican late last year. Pope Benedict XVI visits US, as he views the United States as essential ‘battleground’ in what he considers the ‘war’ of today’s era - proving that modernity doesn’t have to stamp out religious faith! Faith and work of the Church in our society is important to us all! US President George W. Bush sees the Pope as a powerful moral figure and received him as head of state and friend. Pope Benedict XVI spoke of his affection for America, a land of hope and opportunity for millions across the world, and offered his support to strengthen the United Nations, where he has promoted human rights as basis for ending war and poverty!

Is the Catholic Church getting more efficiently involved in world affairs as to achieve a better understanding with other important religions helping to ease political tensions?

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